Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 0.015317 0.017351 0.019557 0.022130 0.025048 0.028256 0.032053
2025-07-06 0.011555 0.014218 0.017356 0.021330 0.026234 0.032098 0.039652
2025-07-13 0.010120 0.013176 0.016986 0.022094 0.028774 0.037234 0.048793
2025-07-20 0.009036 0.012321 0.016610 0.022633 0.030896 0.041868 0.057602
2025-07-27 0.008262 0.011724 0.016431 0.023314 0.033156 0.046776 0.067151
2025-08-03 0.007381 0.010854 0.015745 0.023160 0.034162 0.049959 0.074500
2025-08-10 0.006695 0.010168 0.015223 0.023141 0.035295 0.053343 0.082374
2025-08-17 0.006016 0.009413 0.014507 0.022733 0.035758 0.055714 0.088858
2025-08-24 0.005596 0.009007 0.014265 0.023003 0.037252 0.059736 0.098230
2025-08-31 0.005136 0.008486 0.013789 0.022840 0.038013 0.062626 0.105986
2025-09-07 0.004873 0.008256 0.013748 0.023366 0.039922 0.067503 0.117442
2025-09-14 0.004400 0.007631 0.013001 0.022633 0.039629 0.068653 0.122571
2025-09-21 0.004050 0.007192 0.012539 0.022365 0.040143 0.071274 0.130631
2025-09-28 0.003654 0.006636 0.011830 0.021600 0.039707 0.072192 0.135704
2025-10-05 0.003536 0.006569 0.011972 0.022372 0.042115 0.078398 0.151133
2025-10-12 0.003395 0.006444 0.011994 0.022918 0.044139 0.084054 0.166019
2025-10-19 0.003283 0.006364 0.012090 0.023608 0.046488 0.090503 0.183032
2025-10-26 0.003072 0.006074 0.011766 0.023452 0.047164 0.093766 0.193942
2025-11-02 0.002896 0.005837 0.011524 0.023433 0.048103 0.097610 0.206371
2025-11-09 0.002690 0.005524 0.011105 0.023019 0.048196 0.099742 0.215380
2025-11-16 0.002575 0.005385 0.011024 0.023292 0.049735 0.104963 0.231472
2025-11-23 0.002424 0.005160 0.010747 0.023127 0.050324 0.108229 0.243561
2025-11-30 0.002352 0.005094 0.010795 0.023660 0.052465 0.114983 0.264065